Model Calibration

Calibration Error

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Avg deviation from predicted

Total Bets

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Across 0 buckets

Model Tendency

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Weighted Error

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Bet-weighted calibration

Predicted vs Actual Win Rate

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How to read this chart: Each dot represents a probability bucket. If the model is well-calibrated, points should lie along the diagonal line.

Dot size indicates the number of bets in that bucket. Points above the line mean actual win rate exceeded predictions (underconfident). Points below mean predicted exceeded actual (overconfident).

Calibration by Bucket

PredictedActualBetsDeviation
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